St Albans district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
One Nation 62% to win St Albans (lean).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), One Nation wins St Albans in 62% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v One Nation (73%). St Albans is held by Labor (Natalie Suleyman); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 9.6 points.
Chance of winning St Albans
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| One Nation | 62% | 24.8% |
| Liberal | 21% | 24.0% |
| Labor | 17% | 25.4% |
Expected first preferences: Labor 25.4% · One Nation 24.8% · Liberal 24.0% · Others 14.7% · Greens 9.1% · Independent 2.1%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 33%, Coalition 14%, Labor 27%, Greens 12%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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